Global diesel exports fall 700,000 bpd as supply disruptions push prices to record highs

Global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year in September, as lower supplies from Russia and West Asia were only partly offset by higher shipments from other regions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Wholesale diesel prices also hit record highs in several major markets. Exports from Russia and West Asia fell by a combined 1.3 million bpd.

The shortfall was partly offset by increased shipments from elsewhere, but diesel markets remained under severe strain as prolonged supply disruptions depleted inventories ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and peak winter demand. Wholesale diesel prices exceeded $200 per barrel in Singapore in mid-September and reached record highs of around $220 per barrel in Europe and the United States. Although prices have eased from those peaks, diesel benchmarks remain nearly double crude oil prices and their pre-crisis levels.

The IEA said record diesel prices were increasing the cost of goods and affecting household purchasing power, economic activity and inflation. Diesel demand weakens Global diesel deliveries fell by 1.1 million bpd year-on-year to 28.5 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026, according to the IEA. The decline continued into the third quarter, with deliveries dropping by 750,000 bpd year-on-year to 28.7 million bpd.

High prices and a weaker economic outlook in several countries have weighed on consumption. Demand for gasoil — a fuel category that includes diesel and heating oil — outside the transport sector has also weakened since the war began. In OECD countries, non-transport gasoil consumption fell 8% year-on-year in the five months to July, while diesel deliveries declined 2% over the same period.

The year-on-year fall in gasoil demand is forecast to accelerate to 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, increased heating fuel requirements ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere could put further pressure on supplies. Global oil demand set to decline Global oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 million bpd year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026.

For the full year, demand is expected to decline by an average of 2.6 million bpd to 102.4 million bpd, with diesel accounting for 25% of the fourth-quarter drop. The IEA projects a partial recovery of 2 million bpd in 2027. Even then, global oil demand is expected to remain 620,000 bpd, or 0.6%, below 2025 levels.

Global observed oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels in September. A 113 million-barrel decline in on-land stocks was largely offset by an increase in oil held on water, including in tankers. Non-OECD crude inventories fell by 76 million barrels, with China accounting for 78% of the decline.

OECD inventories dropped by 37 million barrels. Global oil stocks were 509 million barrels below their end-February levels, equivalent to a decline of 2.4 million bpd over the period. Trump-Putin diesel deal amid supply disruptions The IEA report came days after US President Donald Trump said on October 9 that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and global markets following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The announcement came as Washington sought to address surging fuel prices. The US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the proposed supplies, reversing restrictions imposed over Russia's war in Ukraine. The move drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US lawmakers, who argued that the deal could benefit Moscow.

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Source: CNBC TV18